The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) has released its latest quarterly update of the ASEAN+3 Regional Economic Outlook (AREO), maintaining growth forecasts for the ASEAN+3 region at 4.4% for 2024 and 4.3% for 2025. The report highlights that favorable export prospects, firm domestic demand, and the continued recovery in tourism will bolster the region's growth momentum.
For 2024, the ASEAN+3 region is expected to grow steadily at 4.4%, slightly lower than the previous forecast of 4.5% made in April 2024. Domestic demand will be supported by strong employment conditions and stable prices, while export growth is anticipated to return to positive territory due to improving global demand. The ASEAN economies are forecasted to see growth improve from 4.2% in 2023 to 4.8% this year. In contrast, the Plus-3 economies (China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; and Korea) are projected to maintain a stable growth rate of 4.4%.
In 2025, AMRO expects ASEAN+3 growth to ease slightly to 4.3% as regional economies converge to their trend growth rates.
AMRO Chief Economist Hoe Ee Khor commented on the overall balance of risks to the region's outlook, noting, "Real estate aside, China's economy continues to grow robustly. Tourism has rebounded close to pre-pandemic levels for most economies in the region, and the global semiconductor recovery is broadening to benefit more economies and sectors in ASEAN+3."
Inflation in the ASEAN+3 region—excluding Lao PDR and Myanmar—is forecasted to moderate to 2.1% in 2024, lower than the previous forecast of 2.5%. However, potential downside risks to inflation persist, particularly if geopolitical tensions escalate and trigger spikes in global commodity and shipping prices.
The update also highlights the increasing salience of U.S.-related risk factors. Higher-for-longer interest rate expectations in the U.S. have pressured many of the region's currencies. Additionally, ASEAN+3 asset markets could experience heightened volatility in the lead-up to the November presidential election, especially if the campaign intensifies U.S.–China trade tensions.
"The bad news is that the region's outlook next year could be significantly affected by the outcome of the U.S. elections. The good news is, the region has weathered similar shocks before," Khor said. "Our economies need to keep rebuilding policy space and pursue policies to enhance resilience to shocks."
These insights and conclusions are part of the latest quarterly update of AMRO's flagship AREO report, with the next update scheduled for release in October.
About AMRO
The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) is an international organization dedicated to securing macroeconomic and financial stability in the ASEAN+3 region, comprising the 10 ASEAN members plus China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea. AMRO conducts macroeconomic surveillance, supports regional financial arrangements, and provides technical assistance, serving as a regional knowledge hub for ASEAN+3 financial cooperation.